So the results are in and the 47th president of the United States will be one Donald J Trump.
President Trump has made no secret of his antipathy towards policies to address climate change, which he still considers a hoax. The impact of his election will of course be most acute in the US itself.
But as the world’s richest and most powerful country and the largest exporter of fossil fuels, Trump’s election will have profound impacts on international action to tackle climate change. This will be almost immediately visible in Baku, Azerbaijan on the 11 November when the 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change gets underway.
Lower attendance already expected
The choice of Baku as the conference venue has already proved unpopular with many delegates. Trump’s election will only serve to dampen enthusiasm further. Attendance is expected to be well down on the record number who attended last year’s conference in Dubai. Many CEOs have already indicated that they won’t attend. Several heads of state too will not be making the trip.
Key priorities for COP29
As far as the UN is concerned, preparations for the COP continue apace. There is a busy agenda – with a particular focus on finance. Top of the to do list is to agree a new financing goal called the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG). The NCQG is intended to replace the $100bn per annum target agreed in 2009, and which was only recently met. Proposals for the NCQG range from $500bn to as much $1trn dollars per annum.
It is also hoped the conference can build momentum for bolder and more ambitious national greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction commitments (known as NDCs ). Countries have agreed to review – and ideally strengthen – their commitments every five years. The deadline for the next round of commitments comes in February 2025.
Other areas of focus include showing progress on the commitments made at COP28 including a target to triple renewable energy and double energy efficiency. With climate impacts already very visible, there will also be a focus on adaptation and a process for agreeing to a Loss and Damage Fund aimed at helping vulnerable countries deal with the impact of climate change.
See also: US election: ‘Greenhushing could become the norm with a Trump win’
A future without the US?
Trump has already said that he will pull again the US out of the Paris Agreement. He may even seek to take the US out of the Framework Convention on Climate Change itself. So the question facing the COP process is whether there is a future without the US?
We have of course been here before. The absence of the US will materially weaken international action on climate change. Funding for initiatives like the NCQG will be lower. Petrostates and other climate laggards will be given cover to resist progress and to air their grievances more assertively. But this is very unlikely to end the COP process. There is still a coalition of the willing. This includes the EU, China and India as well as the largest parts of the US economy itself such as California and New York. Since Trump has been out of power countries such as Australia and Brazil have also become energetic participants, having sided with him during his previous tenure.
So there will be a future for COP without the US. Even in the US, driven by the economics of renewable power, GHG emissions are still anticipated to fall during Trump’s term in office. But they will fall more slowly. And without US prodding, other recalcitrant states will also feel less pressure to address their own emissions.
This all comes at a time when the need for action is extremely urgent. As the Potsdam Institute’s director Johan Rockstrom put it: “[A Trump Presidency] will hit the pause button on climate action for four years. Can we afford that? The answer is no.”
