Sustainable bond maturities are set to peak in 2026 at $389bn, with medium-term debt issued in and around 2019 coming due along with recently issued shorter-term debt. But this peak appears to be manageable, according to the latest analysis from S&P Global.
The sustainable debt market has sufficient liquidity, in S&P Global’s view, to meet near-term refinancing needs, even if issuance slows down in 2025. Investor demand appears to be more than sufficient to meet the needs, with rated issuance in each of the past five years close to double the amounts scheduled to mature annually over the next five years.
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Approximately 20% of outstanding sustainable debt is set to mature in 2025 or 2026, a significant increase from the 7% that was to mature within the 24 months beginning April 2024.
One cause for the jump, S&P Global suggested, is the market’s rapid growth since 2019. Additionally, while issuance has slowed over the past year, tenors have also shortened. This year and next will see medium-term sustainable debt issued in or around 2019 come due, along with shorter-term debt issued more recently.
About 3% (or roughly $10bn) of the 2025 maturities were issued in 2024. Social bonds from Korean financial institutions represent more than 60% of that amount, while green bonds issued by Austria, the sovereign, make up close to a third.
Broken down into types of sustainable debt, green bonds saw record issuance in 2024 and now represent 55% of the sustainable debt maturing through 2029. This is followed by sustainability bonds at 20% and social bonds at 19%. The dominance of green bonds is expected to persist, according to the ratings agency, because of efforts to close the climate finance gap in lower-income countries.
Trends by issuer region indicate that of the debt maturing through 2029, Europe accounts for 45%, up four percentage points from April 2024. The share of maturities from Asia-Pacific – the second-largest region – fell three percentage points over the same period, to 22%.
